Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 19 | 7.6 | 3.9% | 61 | 0.53% | 86 | 0.75% |
| 10-19 | 43 | 25.0 | 14.2% | 223 | 1.64% | 321 | 2.36% |
| 20-29 | 84 | 46.6 | 25.2% | 394 | 1.88% | 543 | 2.59% |
| 30-39 | 43 | 28.9 | 15.5% | 242 | 1.78% | 369 | 2.71% |
| 40-49 | 53 | 25.0 | 13.3% | 209 | 2% | 306 | 2.92% |
| 50-59 | 48 | 22.0 | 11.7% | 184 | 1.47% | 279 | 2.22% |
| 60-69 | 28 | 18.3 | 8.9% | 140 | 1.22% | 207 | 1.8% |
| 70+ | 33 | 13.9 | 7.2% | 113 | 1.08% | 175 | 1.67% |
| All ages | 351 | 187.1 | 100% | 1566 | 1.5% | 2286 | 2.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3.1% | 32 | 0.41% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 8.4 | 8.4% | 88 | 1.05% | 117 | 1.39% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 15.3 | 15.3% | 160 | 2.25% | 236 | 3.32% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 16.4 | 17.7% | 185 | 2.2% | 278 | 3.31% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 17.9 | 17.3% | 181 | 2.33% | 278 | 3.58% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 16.6 | 16% | 167 | 1.72% | 260 | 2.68% |
| 60-69 | 19 | 14.3 | 14.1% | 147 | 1.75% | 211 | 2.51% |
| 70+ | 8 | 9.9 | 8% | 84 | 1.18% | 118 | 1.66% |
| All ages | 104 | 101.6 | 100% | 1044 | 1.61% | 1537 | 2.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.4 | 3.7% | 38 | 0.7% | 57 | 1.05% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 10.1 | 9% | 92 | 1.69% | 137 | 2.52% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 17.9 | 15.3% | 156 | 3.45% | 215 | 4.75% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 19.4 | 15.3% | 156 | 2.87% | 214 | 3.94% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 16.9 | 13.7% | 140 | 2.81% | 199 | 4% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 18.9 | 15.6% | 159 | 2.34% | 212 | 3.12% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 17.9 | 14.9% | 152 | 2.4% | 196 | 3.09% |
| 70+ | 15 | 13.0 | 12.5% | 128 | 2.02% | 158 | 2.49% |
| All ages | 128 | 118.4 | 100% | 1021 | 2.26% | 1388 | 3.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.0 | 3% | 41 | 0.35% | 53 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 15.0 | 10.5% | 145 | 0.88% | 211 | 1.27% |
| 20-29 | 50 | 32.3 | 21.5% | 296 | 1.39% | 418 | 1.96% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 25.0 | 16.9% | 232 | 1.71% | 305 | 2.24% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 17.4 | 12.4% | 170 | 1.25% | 243 | 1.79% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 23.4 | 15.8% | 217 | 1.53% | 311 | 2.19% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 14.3 | 10.9% | 150 | 1.06% | 221 | 1.56% |
| 70+ | 29 | 13.1 | 9.1% | 125 | 0.96% | 173 | 1.33% |
| All ages | 204 | 144.6 | 100% | 1376 | 1.16% | 1935 | 1.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 25 | 22.6 | 4.8% | 240 | 0.4% | 324 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 111 | 89.4 | 16.8% | 834 | 1.17% | 1106 | 1.56% |
| 20-29 | 119 | 119.3 | 24.2% | 1197 | 1.15% | 1571 | 1.51% |
| 30-39 | 88 | 78.1 | 15.7% | 775 | 1.01% | 1027 | 1.34% |
| 40-49 | 66 | 66.6 | 13.3% | 658 | 1% | 886 | 1.35% |
| 50-59 | 67 | 57.1 | 11.5% | 568 | 0.87% | 724 | 1.1% |
| 60-69 | 34 | 38.7 | 7.2% | 355 | 0.65% | 444 | 0.81% |
| 70+ | 34 | 30.7 | 6.5% | 324 | 0.66% | 429 | 0.87% |
| All ages | 544 | 502.6 | 100% | 4951 | 0.91% | 6511 | 1.19% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 330 | 260.9 | 4% | 2575 | 0.4% | 3492 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 802 | 744.4 | 11.4% | 7370 | 0.97% | 10025 | 1.32% |
| 20-29 | 1302 | 1123.7 | 17.4% | 11219 | 1.48% | 15451 | 2.04% |
| 30-39 | 1275 | 1033.3 | 15.5% | 10011 | 1.32% | 13700 | 1.81% |
| 40-49 | 1321 | 963.1 | 14.4% | 9304 | 1.33% | 12831 | 1.84% |
| 50-59 | 1358 | 1042.1 | 15.7% | 10118 | 1.24% | 13770 | 1.69% |
| 60-69 | 834 | 744.6 | 11.4% | 7316 | 0.97% | 9903 | 1.31% |
| 70+ | 766 | 651.4 | 10.1% | 6513 | 1.02% | 8662 | 1.35% |
| All ages | 7989 | 6563.7 | 100% | 64427 | 1.11% | 87835 | 1.51% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 218.5 | 236 | 259.4 | 187.1 | 150.3 | 34.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 237.7 | 101.6 | 110.6 | 36.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 306.8 | 118.4 | 73.7 | 44.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163.7 | 127.5 | 196.4 | 144.6 | 120.1 | 29.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 119.1 | 155.6 | 151.2 | 502.6 | 347.9 | 28.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150.9 | 132.4 | 204.1 | 6563.7 | 5394.3 | 34.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 7.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.47 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2712"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges