Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 12 2020 5475 33491 173 34 1380 1819
November 13 2020 5542 33668 183 35 1317 1804
November 14 2020 5626 33990 189 40 1310 1781
November 15 2020 5865 34361 192 40 1309 1905
November 16 2020 6149 34583 193 42 1433 2054
November 17 2020 6251 35217 197 45 1354 2026
November 18 2020 6602 35585 201 46 1566 2286
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 19 7.6 3.9% 61 0.53% 86 0.75%
10-19 43 25.0 14.2% 223 1.64% 321 2.36%
20-29 84 46.6 25.2% 394 1.88% 543 2.59%
30-39 43 28.9 15.5% 242 1.78% 369 2.71%
40-49 53 25.0 13.3% 209 2% 306 2.92%
50-59 48 22.0 11.7% 184 1.47% 279 2.22%
60-69 28 18.3 8.9% 140 1.22% 207 1.8%
70+ 33 13.9 7.2% 113 1.08% 175 1.67%
All ages 351 187.1 100% 1566 1.5% 2286 2.18%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 12 2020 3223 20752 92 35 1190 1434
November 13 2020 3358 20857 95 36 1230 1493
November 14 2020 3438 21032 99 36 1178 1499
November 15 2020 3511 21197 102 38 1077 1553
November 16 2020 3580 21319 104 41 976 1547
November 17 2020 3693 21645 107 41 980 1565
November 18 2020 3797 21827 107 42 1044 1537
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 2.9 3.1% 32 0.41% 39 0.5%
10-19 10 8.4 8.4% 88 1.05% 117 1.39%
20-29 18 15.3 15.3% 160 2.25% 236 3.32%
30-39 10 16.4 17.7% 185 2.2% 278 3.31%
40-49 15 17.9 17.3% 181 2.33% 278 3.58%
50-59 21 16.6 16% 167 1.72% 260 2.68%
60-69 19 14.3 14.1% 147 1.75% 211 2.51%
70+ 8 9.9 8% 84 1.18% 118 1.66%
All ages 104 101.6 100% 1044 1.61% 1537 2.38%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 12 2020 2128 13524 82 28 740 950
November 13 2020 2184 13590 88 29 760 961
November 14 2020 2397 13804 92 30 903 1116
November 15 2020 2641 13993 97 30 1055 1321
November 16 2020 2721 14032 98 30 1036 1333
November 17 2020 2754 14235 104 34 957 1330
November 18 2020 2882 14400 109 35 1021 1388
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 4.4 3.7% 38 0.7% 57 1.05%
10-19 10 10.1 9% 92 1.69% 137 2.52%
20-29 11 17.9 15.3% 156 3.45% 215 4.75%
30-39 23 19.4 15.3% 156 2.87% 214 3.94%
40-49 29 16.9 13.7% 140 2.81% 199 4%
50-59 14 18.9 15.6% 159 2.34% 212 3.12%
60-69 22 17.9 14.9% 152 2.4% 196 3.09%
70+ 15 13.0 12.5% 128 2.02% 158 2.49%
All ages 128 118.4 100% 1021 2.26% 1388 3.07%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 12 2020 6018 36351 109 28 1383 1652
November 13 2020 6184 36601 113 28 1444 1711
November 14 2020 6226 36977 113 30 1316 1676
November 15 2020 6285 37236 114 30 1250 1677
November 16 2020 6449 37430 115 30 1275 1814
November 17 2020 6641 37750 121 31 1250 1901
November 18 2020 6845 38261 128 31 1376 1935
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 4.0 3% 41 0.35% 53 0.45%
10-19 15 15.0 10.5% 145 0.88% 211 1.27%
20-29 50 32.3 21.5% 296 1.39% 418 1.96%
30-39 34 25.0 16.9% 232 1.71% 305 2.24%
40-49 22 17.4 12.4% 170 1.25% 243 1.79%
50-59 25 23.4 15.8% 217 1.53% 311 2.19%
60-69 22 14.3 10.9% 150 1.06% 221 1.56%
70+ 29 13.1 9.1% 125 0.96% 173 1.33%
All ages 204 144.6 100% 1376 1.16% 1935 1.64%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 12 2020 20590 254788 649 57 4383 5437
November 13 2020 21055 255636 660 61 4287 5534
November 14 2020 21348 257673 664 61 4385 5509
November 15 2020 21720 259011 667 61 4425 5709
November 16 2020 22223 259512 673 61 4416 6016
November 17 2020 22930 261256 695 64 4656 6162
November 18 2020 23474 262791 706 68 4951 6511
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 25 22.6 4.8% 240 0.4% 324 0.54%
10-19 111 89.4 16.8% 834 1.17% 1106 1.56%
20-29 119 119.3 24.2% 1197 1.15% 1571 1.51%
30-39 88 78.1 15.7% 775 1.01% 1027 1.34%
40-49 66 66.6 13.3% 658 1% 886 1.35%
50-59 67 57.1 11.5% 568 0.87% 724 1.1%
60-69 34 38.7 7.2% 355 0.65% 444 0.81%
70+ 34 30.7 6.5% 324 0.66% 429 0.87%
All ages 544 502.6 100% 4951 0.91% 6511 1.19%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 12 2020 293388 1964779 13771 2515 61092 78392
November 13 2020 301165 1975512 14045 2573 63098 81073
November 14 2020 306311 1989320 14226 2625 62309 80941
November 15 2020 312369 2001239 14381 2637 62445 83506
November 16 2020 316758 2009148 14499 2649 60693 84462
November 17 2020 323848 2024801 14817 2741 60718 85781
November 18 2020 331837 2036941 15100 2793 64427 87835
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 330 260.9 4% 2575 0.4% 3492 0.55%
10-19 802 744.4 11.4% 7370 0.97% 10025 1.32%
20-29 1302 1123.7 17.4% 11219 1.48% 15451 2.04%
30-39 1275 1033.3 15.5% 10011 1.32% 13700 1.81%
40-49 1321 963.1 14.4% 9304 1.33% 12831 1.84%
50-59 1358 1042.1 15.7% 10118 1.24% 13770 1.69%
60-69 834 744.6 11.4% 7316 0.97% 9903 1.31%
70+ 766 651.4 10.1% 6513 1.02% 8662 1.35%
All ages 7989 6563.7 100% 64427 1.11% 87835 1.51%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
218.5 236 259.4 187.1 150.3 34.4%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
237.7 101.6 110.6 36.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
306.8 118.4 73.7 44.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
163.7 127.5 196.4 144.6 120.1 29.9%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
119.1 155.6 151.2 502.6 347.9 28.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
150.9 132.4 204.1 6563.7 5394.3 34.5%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 7.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.47 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2712"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red